New Zealand Civil Aviation Authority has created a new rule for Safety Management Systems (SMS) in various aviation organisations, including among others maintenance organisations. Risk Assessment has a central role in the Safety Management System.

For many reasons, Risk Assessment is a very challenging task. This is due to the subjectivity involved in determining the severity of the consequences when a hazard is released and the lack of quantitative information on the probability of this occurring. Older methods have been characterised by high levels of subjectivity and other difficulties.

Safety risk management can be split into three elements;

1. Hazard Identification

2. Risk Assessment

3. Risk Mitigation

Oceania Aviation Safety and Quality Department has developed a Risk Management model. This model introduces a risk management methodology that attempts to meet NZCAA Part 100 and AC100-1 Requirements and Guidelines. The methodology defines an overall process for Risk Assessment and describes each step. The model has been developed based on ARMS (Aviation Risk Management Solutions) methodology.

The assessment process starts with Event Risk Classification, which is the first review of events in terms of urgency and the need for further investigation. This step also attaches a risk value to each event - which is necessary for creating safety statistics reflecting risk. The next step is data analysis in order to identify current Safety Issues. These Safety Issues are then risk assessed in detail through the Safety Issue Risk Assessment. The whole process ensures that any necessary safety actions are identified, creates a Register for following up risks and actions and provides a Safety Performance Monitoring function. Safety Issue Risk Assessment can also be used to make Safety Assessments, which is a requirement of the “Management of Change” element of the SMS.

Risk Management Objectives

The main objective of Risk Management is to make sure that all risks remain at an acceptable level.

Contributing to Safety Performance Monitoring through the establishment of risk-based Safety Performance Indicators can be considered a secondary objective. Hazard identification is about collecting and analysing safety data, thereby identifying Safety Issues. Such safety data typically includes safety reports, Occurrence Reports (incident reports, defect reports, etc.) and the results of safety surveys and audits. Hazard Identification provides the input for Risk Assessment.

The objective for Risk Assessment is the Assessment of operational risks in a systematic, robust and intellectually cohesive manner.

 Risk Assessment is needed in three different contexts:

1. Individual safety Events may reflect a high level of risk and consequently require urgent action. Therefore, all incoming events need to be risk assessed. This step is called Event Risk Classification.

2. The Hazard Identification process may lead to the identification of Safety Issues, which need to be risk assessed to determine what actions, if any are needed. This step is called Safety Issue Risk Assessment.

3. From time to time there will be a need to carry out Safety Assessments, typically related to a new or revised operational activity (e.g. new capability, new aircraft type, etc.). The activity needs to be risk assessed at the planning stage, according to the “Management of Change” process of the company.

Risk Assessment as such does not reduce risk. The SMS of the company will specify the functional groups who are required to identify the necessary actions and to follow up their implementation and effectiveness. The (Risk) Register is of major help in tracking recommendations, both for implementation and effectiveness.

All the safety data should be entered into the safety database. It is necessary to have a “structured” database, which can be used for data analysis and where individual events can easily be found. Oceania Aviation Safety & Quality Department has been considering a Cloud based QMS solution to ensure that we are capturing all the necessary information without the excessive use of excel spreadsheets. The safety database facilitates different kinds of statistical analyses, including charts on event numbers, risk levels and rates, sorted by various criteria. Such analyses may drive some action, even before a Safety Issue is formally raised and a more formal risk assessment has been made.

We believe, this model links with the three main NZCAA SMS framework elements: Risk Assessment/Mitigation, Safety Performance Monitoring /Measurement, and Management of Change.